PENNSYLVANIA— More than half of small-business owners expect artificial intelligence to reduce their workforces within three years, even as many report delaying automation because of loyalty to employees, according to a July survey by workforce-services provider Careerminds.
The survey of 3,022 U.S. small-business owners found 56% expect to employ fewer people because of AI within three years, pointing to longer-term employment pressure even where owners are reluctant to replace existing workers.
That reluctance is already affecting technology decisions. Sixty-one percent of respondents reported delaying the introduction of AI because of concerns about employees, while 59% had rejected a particular AI tool because they believed it could lead to job losses.
Careerminds found 58% of owners believe AI can already perform a meaningful portion of the work done by at least one employee.
Applying state-level survey results to estimated small-business employment, the company calculated that about 1.63 million Pennsylvania employees work in roles where their employers believe AI could perform part of their jobs. The figure is an estimate derived from survey responses and employment data, rather than a count of workers whose jobs are expected to disappear.
The findings suggest small businesses may initially absorb AI-driven productivity gains through attrition and changes in job responsibilities rather than widespread immediate layoffs.
Among owners asked for the primary reason they would not replace an employee with AI, 33% cited loyalty. Seventeen percent pointed to an employee’s long tenure, 13% to company knowledge, 12% to a personal responsibility for the worker’s financial well-being and 12% to customer relationships.
The limits of that protection varied substantially. Twenty-four percent would retain an employee for six to 12 months if AI could perform most of the person’s work at lower cost, while 18% chose less than six months and another 18% chose one to two years.
At the other end, 23% would keep the employee for as long as the business could afford the additional cost, while 10% would retain the person indefinitely.
The employees owners were most reluctant to replace were those with long tenures, cited by 28% of respondents, followed by workers approaching retirement at 22% and employees with families or dependents at 20%. Fifteen percent selected employees who helped build the business.
The results also show small-business owners placing considerable weight on their responsibilities as employers. Three-quarters reported believing they have greater personal responsibility toward employees when making AI decisions than larger companies do.
Forty-seven percent agreed employers should protect jobs wherever reasonably possible, while 31% favored protecting jobs even when doing so reduces profits. Fifteen percent placed business survival first, and 7% favored adopting AI whenever doing so is financially beneficial.
Those attitudes haven’t eliminated expectations of workforce contraction. With 56% anticipating fewer employees because of AI within three years, automation could reduce headcount without requiring owners to dismiss current workers directly, including by leaving positions vacant after resignations or retirements.
Sixty-two percent of respondents reported already discussing with employees how AI could affect their roles.
“Loyalty can only delay these decisions for so long,” Amanda Augustine, a certified professional career coach and career expert for Careerminds, stated. “If AI can take over a meaningful portion of someone’s job, the better question is how that role needs to evolve and where that employee can continue to add value.”
Augustine pointed to reskilling and shifting responsibilities as potential ways for small businesses to adapt jobs rather than preserve existing roles unchanged.
Careerminds conducted the survey in July among 3,022 small-business owners across the U.S. The company reported using demographic quotas and weighting to make the sample broadly representative of small- and medium-sized business owners by age, gender, region and business size.
The company combined survey responses with national employment statistics and estimates of employment at small and medium-sized businesses to calculate the worker figures cited in its study.
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