MALVERN, PA — Colorado State University researchers are forecasting a slightly below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing expected El Niño conditions that typically suppress storm activity.
The forecast calls for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes during the season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
A typical Atlantic season averages 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
“At this point, we are anticipating a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University.
El Niño conditions can increase vertical wind shear, which disrupts hurricane formation, while tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are expected to remain near average, limiting storm intensification.
The 2025 Atlantic season was above average, with 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, caused nearly $9 billion in damage in Jamaica and resulted in 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.
Colorado State researchers also estimate a 32% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline in 2026, below the historical average of 43%.
The probability is 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, and 20% for the Gulf Coast, both below long-term averages.
The Caribbean has a 35% chance of a major hurricane landfall, also below historical norms.
“While last year was a relatively quiet hurricane season for the continental U.S., all it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family,” said Sean Kevelighan, chief executive officer of the Insurance Information Institute.
The organization advises homeowners and businesses to review insurance coverage, including flood policies, which are not included in standard property insurance.
Officials also recommend preparing emergency kits, documenting property for insurance claims, and developing evacuation plans ahead of the season.
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