MALVERN, PA — U.S. property and casualty insurers are expected to post stronger underwriting results through 2028 as moderating claims costs and stable economic conditions improve profitability, although catastrophe losses, liability claims and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the industry’s outlook, according to a report released by the Insurance Information Institute and Milliman.
The organizations said underwriting conditions remain favorable across much of the industry, with insurance-related economic growth projected to outpace overall U.S. gross domestic product through 2028.
The report projects continued strength in personal insurance lines after favorable first-quarter results, though homeowners insurers face greater uncertainty because of elevated catastrophe exposure.
Commercial property insurance also performed well during the first quarter, while liability-focused lines, including general liability and commercial auto, continue to face higher loss ratios driven by persistent claims costs.
Workers’ compensation remains one of the industry’s strongest-performing segments, supported by stable employment, steady wage growth and favorable loss trends.
“Our latest economic forecasts for the P/C industry have improved since earlier this year,” Triple-I Chief Economist Michel Léonard stated. He added that geopolitical developments and inflationary pressures, including those tied to the Persian Gulf conflict, remain risks during the second half of 2026.
The report assumes geopolitical tensions ease later this year but cautions that uncertainty could continue to affect underwriting conditions and premium growth.
“General liability and commercial auto continue to present the greatest underwriting challenges,” Jason B. Kurtz, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, stated. “We see elevated loss ratios for these lines continuing based on Q1 results.”
Patrick Schmid, chief insurance officer at Triple-I, said underwriting performance continues to improve across much of the industry but noted that economic conditions, litigation-related claims pressures and changing risk exposures require insurers to maintain disciplined underwriting and risk-based pricing.
Stephen Cooper, practice leader and senior economist at the National Council on Compensation Insurance, said improving employment and contained medical inflation remain positive trends for workers’ compensation, while rising interest rates and the potential for higher claim frequency warrant continued monitoring.
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