The number of prospective U.S. homebuyers fell to a record low of 966,752 in July as higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty weakened demand, leaving sellers outnumbering buyers by 51.3% and shifting negotiating power toward purchasers across much of the country, according to Redfin.
The estimated number of buyers declined 2.5% from June, while the number of sellers slipped 0.3% to 1,462,921, its lowest level in a year.
That left approximately 496,000 more sellers than buyers nationwide. The seller surplus increased from 47.9% in June and approached the record 51.8% reached in December.
The imbalance reflects deteriorating demand rather than a surge in available homes. Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in a year during July, adding to affordability pressures already compounded by economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
“Buyers are dropping out faster than sellers, giving the buyers who remain more options and more negotiating power,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan stated.
Khan indicated that the period before Labor Day could provide an opening for buyers and sellers seeking to complete transactions before early-fall activity increases.
“Buyers have leverage, while motivated sellers may be willing to negotiate before the early-fall rush brings some buyers back to the market,” he stated.
Redfin classified 39 of the 49 major metropolitan areas it analyzed as buyer’s markets, meaning sellers outnumbered buyers by more than 10%.
Miami recorded the widest imbalance, with 154% more sellers than buyers. Nashville followed at 151%, trailed by Houston at 130%, San Antonio at 116% and Austin at 112%.
Miami and Nashville are absorbing new construction and investor-owned inventory accumulated during the pandemic-era housing boom. In Miami, rising insurance premiums, homeowners association fees and climate risks have added further pressure to housing costs.
Houston, San Antonio and Austin also continue to receive substantial volumes of newly built homes as demand cools, leaving sellers with fewer advantages in negotiations.
The seller surplus widened in 34 of the 39 buyer’s markets between June and July. Miami’s gap increased from 134% to 154%, Seattle’s rose from 46% to 65%, and Fort Worth’s climbed from 67% to 86%.
Nashville’s surplus expanded from 135% to 151%, while Houston’s increased from 114% to 130%.
Only six metropolitan areas remained seller’s markets, where buyers outnumber sellers by more than 10%.
Nassau County, New York, posted the largest seller advantage, with 36% fewer sellers than buyers. Newark, New Jersey, followed at 21% fewer sellers, with Providence, Rhode Island, at 17%; Milwaukee at 15%; and New Brunswick, New Jersey, and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, each at 13%.
Montgomery County’s seller shortage places the Philadelphia-area market among a small group still favoring homeowners despite the broader national shift toward buyers.
Annual home-sale price growth averaged 4.2% across the six seller’s markets, compared with 2.3% across the 39 buyer’s markets.
The remaining four metropolitan areas were classified as balanced, with the gap between buyers and sellers falling within 10%.
Buyer leverage weakened in five buyer’s markets: West Palm Beach, Florida; San Antonio; Pittsburgh; Virginia Beach, Virginia; and Dallas.
Redfin examined the nation’s 50 most populous metropolitan areas but excluded Fort Lauderdale, Florida, because of insufficient data.
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