KING OF PRUSSIA, PA — Holiday shoppers are increasingly willing to sacrifice discounts for predictable delivery, with 70% of U.S. consumers saying they would forgo a 5% discount for guaranteed delivery on a specified date, according to an August survey commissioned by Radial Inc.
The findings suggest fulfillment performance could give retailers another way to compete during the holiday season as consumers weigh price against delivery speed, certainty and visibility. When price and product availability are equal, 78% of respondents prioritize faster shipping over other factors.
Discounts remain the strongest individual incentive for earlier holiday purchases. Fifty-nine percent of consumers said a discount or promotion would prompt them to buy earlier, compared with 38% citing guaranteed pre-holiday delivery, 35% guaranteed product availability and 32% flexible returns.
But the survey found consumers are willing to surrender increasingly large discounts in exchange for a firm delivery date. Fifty-four percent would give up a 10% discount for guaranteed delivery, while 37% would forgo 20%.
The trade-off varied substantially by age. At the 20% discount level, 48% of Gen Z respondents and 45% of Millennials preferred guaranteed delivery, compared with 33% of Gen X consumers and 22% of Baby Boomers.
“Shoppers have not stopped caring about prices, but the research shows retailers can win customers by instilling confidence in fulfillment expectations and timelines,” Radial CEO Tom Schmitt said.
Retailers also face a credibility test when making those delivery commitments. While 67% of respondents trust retailers that promise orders placed by a specified date will arrive before the holidays, nearly one-third expressed reservations.
Consumers cited financial guarantees and greater shipment visibility as ways retailers could strengthen those promises. Forty-eight percent wanted a money-back or guaranteed shipping rate, 43% cited frequent tracking updates, 42% preferred a specific delivery date rather than a range and 36% wanted real-time inventory confirmation.
That scrutiny continues after checkout. Fifty-six percent of respondents monitor tracking information at least daily, including 24% who check multiple times a day.
A lack of tracking information can also push shoppers toward another purchase before an order is officially late. Twelve percent said they would buy a backup gift within 24 hours without a tracking update, while 27% would do so after two or three days and another 21% after a week.
Marketplaces stand to capture the largest share of those backup purchases. Twenty-eight percent of consumers said they would turn to a marketplace such as Amazon or Walmart, while 16% would shop online with a competing retailer and 22% would visit the original retailer’s physical store.
Radial, a third-party logistics provider that is set to become Paxon later this year, conducted the survey with Dynata in August 2026. The research covered 1,000 U.S. consumers age 18 and older.
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