PHILADELPHIA, PA — Home sellers outnumbered buyers by 56.4% in the Philadelphia metropolitan area in September, placing the region firmly in a buyer’s market as a nationwide decline in housing demand gave purchasers greater negotiating power, according to an October 14 report from real estate brokerage Redfin.
The Philadelphia-area imbalance reflects a broader shift in the U.S. housing market, where the number of sellers exceeded buyers by a record 62.6%, the widest gap in Redfin data dating to 2013.
The national disparity increased from 56.9% in August, marking the fourth consecutive month in which the seller surplus reached a record.
Redfin estimated that 928,892 prospective buyers were active nationwide in September, the lowest level in its records and a 2.4% decline from August. Buyer activity fell for the fifth consecutive month.
Meanwhile, the estimated number of sellers increased 1.2% to 1,510,784, the highest since March 2020.
The figures indicate that weakening demand, rather than a surge in new listings alone, is driving the shift in negotiating power.
“This is a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin.
“Buyers have tremendous negotiating power in most of the country because so many other would-be buyers have been priced out of the market, or scared off by economic uncertainty.”
Redfin classifies a market as favoring buyers when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%. Markets with more than 10% fewer sellers than buyers are classified as seller’s markets, while those within 10% of parity are considered balanced.
By that measure, 41 of the 50 major metropolitan areas analyzed favored buyers in September, the highest number recorded by the brokerage.
The Philadelphia metropolitan area’s 56.4% seller surplus places it among those markets, although conditions differ within the broader region.
Montgomery County, PA, remained one of only five seller’s markets nationwide, with 22.7% fewer sellers than buyers.
That contrast underscores the uneven distribution of housing supply and demand across southeastern Pennsylvania, where buyers in some communities face considerably more competition than the regional figures suggest.
Montgomery County joined Nassau County, NY, Newark, NJ, Milwaukee and San Francisco as the only seller’s markets among the 50 areas examined.
Nassau County had the tightest conditions for buyers, with 28.6% fewer sellers than buyers. Newark recorded an 18.5% seller deficit, followed by Milwaukee at 16.1% and San Francisco at 10.6%.
Those five markets also held seller’s-market status in August.
The strongest buyer’s markets were concentrated in the Sun Belt, where extensive home construction has increased available inventory even as demand has weakened.
Miami recorded 158.9% more sellers than buyers in September, up from 134.5% in August, giving it the largest seller surplus among the metropolitan areas studied.
Nashville and Houston also ranked among the markets with the greatest imbalances.
In the 13 metropolitan areas most favorable to buyers, sellers outnumbered buyers by more than two to one. All were in the Sun Belt, including four in Texas and four in Florida.
Tampa’s seller surplus increased to 103.7% from 82.2% in August, while Warren, MI, recorded an increase to 47.1% from 27.3%.
The seller surplus widened in nearly every market already favoring buyers. St. Louis and Detroit were the only exceptions, although both continued to have substantially more sellers than buyers.
Four metropolitan areas were classified as balanced, including Boston, where sellers exceeded buyers by 7.4%, and Providence, RI, where the surplus reached 2.4%.
Redfin attributed the broader market imbalance to elevated housing costs and economic uncertainty that have discouraged prospective purchasers.
Homes remaining on the market longer have contributed to an accumulation of listings, while some homeowners have decided to sell after waiting for mortgage rates to decline or buyer demand to recover.
Others are selling because of employment changes, family circumstances, divorce or retirement.
The shift has not produced uniform price declines.
Across the five seller’s markets, home-sale prices increased an average of 6.4% year over year in August, compared with a 1% increase across markets favoring buyers.
The difference suggests that limited housing supply continues to support stronger price growth in certain metropolitan areas despite the national slowdown.
For qualified buyers, the expanding inventory offers more opportunities to negotiate prices and terms or reject properties that do not meet their financial requirements.
However, Redfin cautioned that the increase in negotiating power does not necessarily translate into improved affordability.
“The irony is that in terms of supply, these are some of the best conditions for buyers in many years—but they have arrived at a time when costs are so high that fewer people can afford to take advantage of them,” Khan said.
Redfin estimated buyer activity using its proprietary data on the time between a buyer’s first property tour and purchase closing, combined with multiple listing service data on active listings and pending sales.
Seller estimates were based on active listings. The figures are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.
The September results illustrate a divided housing market: Buyers have gained leverage across much of the Philadelphia region and the country, while limited inventory continues to favor sellers in Montgomery County and a small number of other metropolitan areas.
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