VALLEY FORGE, PA — As the winter months approach, PJM Interconnection assures that it has sufficient resources to meet the anticipated electricity demand across its 13-state network and the District of Columbia. However, the organization warns of narrowing reserve margins due to ongoing generator retirements and rising demand.
PJM anticipates having approximately 179,800 megawatts (MW) available to meet a projected peak demand of around 141,200 MW this winter, along with an average of 5,500 MW earmarked for export to neighboring grids. While the system is expected to remain stable even under more extreme scenarios, such as reduced gas and renewable generation or increased demand, severe weather might necessitate emergency procedures.
“The PJM system is reliable today, but we are keenly aware of the challenges we face as system reserves continue to erode,” noted PJM President and CEO Manu Asthana. In recent years, harsh weather conditions have underscored the risks associated with diminishing reserves, exacerbated by an increase of over 4,000 MW in forecasted winter demand since the December 2022 Winter Storm Elliott, alongside a reduction in thermal generation resources.
To tackle these challenges, PJM has been enhancing situational awareness and generator readiness. Michael Bryson, Sr. Vice President of Operations, emphasized the importance of ongoing collaboration with stakeholders to improve generator performance and system awareness, stating, “We are not that far away from Winter Storm Elliott, so the possibility of that scenario remains very real.”
PJM’s winter readiness strategy includes a comprehensive checklist for generation owners, which mandates increased staffing during emergencies and necessary equipment maintenance. The organization conducts annual winter readiness assessments, gathering crucial data on fuel inventory, supply logistics, emission constraints, and minimum operating temperatures. Regular meetings with federal and state regulators, as well as neighboring systems, ensure coordinated winter preparations.
Additionally, PJM collaborates with major natural gas pipeline operators to align operations and conducts cold weather drills each year. Site visits to generation facilities are also planned with ReliabilityFirst and SERC to uphold reliability standards.
In 2023, PJM and the Independent Market Monitor released guidelines to help generators provide accurate operational data during natural gas pipeline restrictions. This collaborative effort aims to enhance system reliability in the face of growing energy demands.
The all-time winter peak for PJM was recorded at 143,295 MW on February 20, 2015, illustrating the scale of demand the grid must be prepared to handle as it looks toward another challenging winter.
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