VALLEY FORGE, PA — PJM Interconnection, the grid operator serving 67 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia, says it has enough electricity resources to meet demand this winter — but cautions that power margins are tightening as demand continues to outpace new generation.
The grid operator expects peak demand to reach roughly 145,700 megawatts (MW), which would set a new winter record, supported by 180,800 MW of available generation. That leaves a reserve margin of about 7,500 MW — lower than last winter’s 8,700 MW buffer.
“The grid is set up to keep the power flowing reliably this winter under forecast conditions, but the tightening of our margins will begin to impact us in the next few years if it continues,” said Aftab Khan, Executive Vice President of Operations, Planning and Security. “PJM is working on multiple levels with all of our stakeholders to reverse this trend of demand growing faster than we can add generation.”
Since last winter, PJM has added about 4,800 MW of new capacity, mostly from solar resources, equivalent to roughly 1,000 MW of additional operational capability for the 2025–2026 season. Still, the system’s reserve margin has declined, highlighting ongoing challenges in bringing new, reliable generation online fast enough to meet growing electricity needs.
PJM reached an all-time winter peak of 143,700 MW in January 2025. While weather forecasts from the National Weather Service call for a slightly warmer winter along the Atlantic coast, PJM continues to prepare for more extreme scenarios. Even under projected loads of up to 150,300 MW, the system is expected to remain reliable — unless generation outages rise sharply, as they did during Winter Storm Elliott in 2022, when more than 46,000 MW were forced offline.
“Generator performance will be critical to maintaining reliability this winter,” said Michael Bryson, Senior Vice President of Operations. “We are encouraged by the work we have seen by generation owners to fortify their units for winter operations, and we will continue to focus on communication and coordination that help us understand how PJM can help to mitigate gas scheduling challenges or other generator limitations.”
In preparation for the season, PJM has implemented lessons learned from prior extreme weather events and is expanding cold-weather testing and site inspections. The organization will also double the number of winter preparedness visits to power plants within its footprint, strengthen coordination with gas pipeline operators, and continue unannounced generator readiness tests.
While PJM’s winter outlook remains stable, officials warned that sustained demand growth — paired with delays in bringing new, dependable generation to market — could strain reliability in the years ahead.
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